31/08/20

The off-season has nearly come to an end and it’s time to wind into another Hong Kong racing term, 2020-21! It’ll be the fourth season that I’ve offered my Hong Kong racing analysis and services via www.hutchishonkers.com, but over 30 years since I first began following my father Bruce around the Sha Tin stables complex and racetrack!

In the wagering game it is vitally important to reflect back upon what has transpired, not only in terms of the form but how one has played the game. Overall, the 2019-20 season was disappointing in some respects, with the overall Best Selections and Strategy incurring a loss (unlike the previous seasons), which meant a dip in the overall profitability of that part of my service since it began.

One of the positives from last season was that the Best Bets continued to make a profit with 33 of 88 best bets winning with an albeit modest 2% POT, when compared to the previous two seasons in particular where 18% & 21% POT was returned respectively. Hong Kong is a constantly tough and competitive market!

Over the season I felt I was consistent with my approach to how I do my form, formulate my ratings or my strategy, but one always needs to recognise where things could’ve been better, or where things might have been wrong, so they can be improved upon or corrected for the future. The bottom line will always look a lot healthier with fewer mistakes, of course unchangeable today, but instructional for tomorrow.

It seemed that the 2019-20 season was unique on many fronts, with the trainers’ championship being fought out by two previously “well-exposed” horsemen – with Ricky Yiu gaining the title in the end – who had never come close to that feat before.

The “newly formed” winning strike-rate of their horses didn’t correlate as it normally would to their prices, which might have contributed an “overrating” of other historically more dominant figures. For example, in 2018-19, a $2.80 chance had a strike-rate of 33.3%, delivering a -9% POT, whereas in 2019-20 it was 29.2% delivering a -20.6% POT! That highlights a big shift, but betting markets being fluid and changing over time, one will hopefully be able to get back on the right side of any potential trends moving forward. That one, I might have been too slow to acknowledge.

As I mentioned prior to last season, I am happy with about 4-5% POT over the season as Hong Kong racing is a very challenging market. So while the 2018-19 results were great (10% POT), the loss in 2019-20 certainly put things back in perspective overall.

One of the many pleasing aspects of last season was the interaction of Hutchi’s Honkers subscribers via HHLive and social media (Twitter & Facebook) and it’s clear that my service offers a large range of information, news and some entertainment, that different people take different things from. Some like to play the best bets only, others use my Rated Prices (RP’s) to help them shop the “overs” in the markets, whilst others shape Quinellas, Trifectas and Quaddies with my selections.

As an added feature this season I will be adding full markets rated to 100%, for all races and I anticipate that this will provide “the full picture” for serious players to identifying “overs” and value in the markets as they form, and therefore might not have necessarily been a part of my early strategy. My full markets will be exclusively available for Hutchi’s Honkers VIP members, with a dedicated and secured page with that information on the website, posted amongst my other analysis.

In addition, for all subscribers, I plan to enhance my service on the Sunday meeting, where I will post suggested bets (and record these) via HHLive during the meeting it self. Obviously, if there is a track pattern or trend that develops during a meeting, I want to expose and potentially exploit this observation! And simply, if a horse’s price drifts and becomes an attractive “over”, I want to be on and alert subscribers accordingly.

Given much thought and some feedback I’ve decided to significantly change the subscription process for HK Season 2020-21. You will now have the option of joining monthly at AUD $19.99 per month. Or, for VIP access, a season will cost AUD $649, which will also provide access to my full RP’s.

I believe I offer the best Hong Kong racing service available anywhere in the world, and to offer it at sustainable value for all who want to follow Hong Kong racing is a an additional goal of mine.